SPY Probes Deeper Into $692 Support as OPEX Volume Fades Near Close

SPY grinds lower to $692.43 (-0.22%) late on sub-52M volume versus 88M average, with WSB venting dump frustration amid BTC slide to $68.8k and mixed earnings digestion. HOOD after-hours reaction remains key retail proxy ahead of jobless claims and Thursday's 208-report barrage, while persistent 0DTE call gamma eyes rebound above $693 despite bearish comment surge.

Macro Summary

SPY tests $692.30 day low with tight $692.97/$693.06 bid/ask and 92k size defending floor into OPEX close, but conviction lags on volume drought signaling exhaustion risks without HOOD lift. Bullish options flow clashes with WSB bear velocity, tilting short-term choppy absent macro surprises.

• HOOD AMC volumes for retail/crypto sentiment gauge
• SPY 695C/694C/692C 0DTE vols (531k/307k/274k) lead gamma chase
• SPOT sub surge props calls; CVS outlook weighs
• BTC $68.8k (-2.74%) on 43B vol drag persists

Choppy OPEX wrap sets up rotation into tomorrow's jobless claims (exp 215k) and Fed speakers, with Thursday cloud/auto earnings wave primed for volatility spikes if beats materialize over prior mixed slate.

Calendar Events

Mixed session earnings feature SPOT sub crush extending calls, offset by CVS/ZBH/TRMB minor beats, BP/BCS/WCC misses, priming HOOD/NET/F post-market for retail/cloud/auto cues into macro tests. Tomorrow's claims data and Fed rhetoric probe soft landing amid 68% March cut odds, ahead of peak Thursday volatility.

Event Name	Date / Time	Summary
SPOT Earnings	Today	+59% EPS beat on subs; calls extend
CVS Earnings	Today	+9% EPS; outlook fade drags shares
HOOD Earnings ⋆	Post-market	Q4 exp $0.64; trading/crypto vols retail barometer
NET Earnings ⋆	Post-market	Q4 exp $0.27; cloud growth momentum
F Earnings ⋆	Post-market	Q4 exp $0.19; autos rotation signal
Jobless Claims	Tomorrow	Exp 215k; beats risk cut odds drop
Full Calendar		View all events

Playbook

OPEX call gamma from 695C/694C/692C volumes backs $692 dip buys hedged against low-volume theta burn, using HOOD strength as retail revival proxy into Thursday rotation. Favor upside on support hold with cloud leverage.

• SPY $695C 2-10-26: Volume leader for gamma ramp above $693
• HOOD $85C weekly: Beats ignite vs BTC drag
• SPY $692P 2-10-26 hedge: Exhaustion protection at lows
• NET $140C weekly: Pre-earnings cloud pop

YOLO: SPY $695C 2-10-26 if $692.97 bids stack into HOOD print and WSB dump peaks.

SPY Options

0DTE chain skews heavily bullish with 695C (531k vol), 694C (307k), 692C (274k) exploding versus sparse ITM put flow, signaling gamma squeeze bets targeting 695+ despite spot stall.

• Bullish: SPY $695C 2-10-26 on dominant flow
• Bearish: SPY $685P 2-10-26 OI hedge cluster
• Favorite: SPY $695C 2-10-26

Call explosion (extreme skew near price) overpowers WSB rants and BTC weakness, pinning upside potential via short gamma pressure; low put conviction hints downside protected but lacks dump fuel into close.

Bulls vs. Bears

Current SPY: $692

Bull SPY Predictions (51%)	Bear SPY Predictions (49%)
$695	$690

Bull Thesis: (51%) OPEX gamma from 695C/694C vols (500k+) forces rebound off $692 low if 92k bids hold, backed by SPOT momentum and flat retail sales preserving 68% March cuts. HOOD post-earnings volumes could proxy dip-buy revival into Thursday cloud/autos beats.

Bear Thesis: (49%) Sub-52M volume unmasks ATH fatigue below $697 with RSI 70+ divergence and WSB "dump" surge on 692 probe; BTC $68.8k drag, CVS guidance fade, theta wipe heighten pullback pre-claims/Fed hawk risks.

Sentiment dead-even on options bull edge offsetting WSB bear acceleration and late price probe; HOOD close/after-hours tips balance into tomorrow open.

Unknown Unknowns

Monitor HOOD after-hours for retail/crypto volume decoupling BTC slump, with jobless claims beats or Fed hawkishness potentially eroding cut pricing sharply. Energy misses or tariff echoes could ripple semis amid Thursday crush.

• Bulls should watch out for 692P theta pin through close
• Bears should watch out for HOOD/NET beats fueling rotation
• Major macro: Tomorrow claims/Fed speakers
• Historical: OPEX low-vol defenses often squeeze +0.3% despite WSB noise

Week pivots on Thursday 208 earnings for sector pops; BTC-equity divergence risks retrace if claims firm labor narrative.

Quantitative Analysis

SPY sinks to $692.43 (-0.22%) in final minutes, spanning $692.30-$696.54 on 52M shares below 88M 10-day/82M 3-month averages, hugging 50-day MA $687 amid P/E 27.9x and RSI 70+ stall near $698 ATH. BTC -2.74% to $68.8k on 43B volume trails equities further, while WSB top comments (180 total) trend bear exhaustion with "dump"/"crash" rants scoring low but high velocity.

1. 695C 531k/694C 307k/692C 274k vols dwarf 685P (32k), implying gamma hunt above $692 despite bid tightness.
2. Put OI heavy at 675/680P but volume thin signals hedge not conviction.
3. 68% cut odds intact on consumer softness, propping dips if HOOD surprises.

Clever insight: Inverted bid/ask ($693.06/$692.97) with 92k/52k sizes echoes trapped shorts from prior OPEX pins, where call flow flipped red closes green (+0.4%); WSB frustration masks potential HOOD-sparked squeeze, but BTC sub-$69k and comment dump trends cap without volume confirmation.

Summary

Markets exhibit late-session fatigue amid subdued trading volumes and mixed earnings reactions, bolstering rate cut expectations while retail frustration and cryptocurrency weakness breed caution. After-hours retail and cloud reports will steer tomorrow's direction alongside employment data and central bank commentary, with a dense earnings schedule next promising sector shifts in volatile flows. Conditions stay resilient via options positioning yet prone to whipsaws, favoring hedged opportunities in selective rotations.