WSB Regards Lament Tech Earnings Misses While Retail Crushes

WSB's top 300 comments reveal frustration with late-day selloffs in AI/tech names like MRVL, CRWD, and OKTA despite mixed beats, contrasted by retail winners like AEO. Sentiment leans bearish short-term on semis/data centers amid profit-taking, with SPY lottos and 0DTE gambling dominant. Key plays focus on earnings rotation to retail; macro chatter eyes PCE data Friday.

Macro Summary

Mixed bag: Tech earnings disappointed despite beats (high expectations in AI supercycle), retail beat hard (AEO raised guidance). Broad market flat-closed after early green, with late rug-pull on semis. Bitcoin/MSTR resilience noted; Trump policy noise (e.g., baby stocks) dismissed as toppy signal. VIX calm, but regards eye volatility pre-PCE.

SPY Outlook

Choppy grind higher into ATH tests, but late fades signal caution. Comments highlight 0DTE/SPY lottos as default play; "1.2% from ATH" buzz, yet "can't retest highs" frustration. Expect rotation from tech to defensives/retail; PCE Friday could catalyze.

Trending Stocks

• MRVL: Heavy put chatter, "drilling to core of earth," consistent ER misses (-5%+ each time).
• CRWD: "Nothing burger" despite beat; high valuation (132x fwd) draws ire.
• AEO: Retail hero, beat/raised Q4; "clothing calls over AI."
• MSTR: Green close saves day for BTC maxis; puts regretted.
• OKTA/GTLB: Beats ignored, tanking on guidance sniff tests.

Calendar Events

Heavy earnings week with AI/cyber focus; watch semis rotation risk. PCE Friday looms for Fed rate path.

Event Name	Date / Time	Summary
CRWD Earnings	Today	Q3 exp 0.94 EPS; cybersecurity beat potential
MRVL Earnings	Today	Q3 exp 0.74 EPS; AI M&A buzz
AEO Earnings	Today	Q3 exp 0.46 EPS; holiday retail gauge
PSTG Earnings	Today	Q3 exp 0.58 EPS; storage demand check
PCE Inflation	Next Week	Core >2.5% risks hawkish Fed
FOMC Minutes	Next Week	Rate hold expected; dovish dots bullish

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Possible Plays

Rotate from battered AI semis to retail/value amid high tech multiples; macro favors dip-buy SPY pre-PCE if VIX stays low. Like resilient BTC proxies and holiday retail.

• AEO calls: Beat/raised guidance; holiday proxy, undervalued vs tech.
• SPY 0DTE lottos: Default WSB grind; buying power refresh tomorrow.
• MSTR calls: BTC green close, Trump tailwinds.
• GLD calls: Inflation hedge chatter rising.
• LULU earnings calls: Retail momentum into Dec.

Bull vs. Bear thesis

Bull: AI supercycle intact (AMZN chips), retail strength signals consumer resilience; PCE dip fuels cuts, SPY ATH grind resumes. Trump policies (mango) boost risk-on.

Bear: Tech ER traps (MRVL/CRWD valuation reset), late fades show profit-taking; baby stocks signal peak euphoria, PCE hot print kills rally.

Historical Information

MRVL: -5%+ AH on last 3 ERs despite beats; pattern repeat. AEO: Bounced last ER. SPY: Dividend yield halved in 10yrs, pure multiple expansion. QQQ: $42 move in 5.5 days, wild volatility.

The Unknown Unknowns

Trump app launch risk (kids bagholding stocks?); Venezuela conflict VIX spike. AMZN AI chips stealing semis thunder. Retail rotation depth—holiday beat or trap?

AI Analysis

Comments filter to post-ER chaos: High-score posts bash MRVL/CRWD for missing AI hype despite beats, signaling valuation reset in semis (hidden pattern: ER sells in supercycle as multiples compress). Retail like AEO wins on low expectations, echoing rotation from tech froth. Late 20min dump ($13k swings noted) patterns as MM option crushing pre-data. BTC/MSTR green amid red tech infers capital flight to "future" assets. PCE Friday pivotal—cool data = ATH, hot = pullback to 600. Realistic: Grind to 650-660 SPX with vol spikes, no crash.

SPY Dec $605 calls: Tech dip-buy + PCE priced for cuts, fits tweet: "Tech ER rug but SPY grinds ATH. $605C pre-PCE melt-up. Bulls feast on bear carcasses." The bulls have it today.